Fossil fuel transition agreed; is it enough? What happened at COP28?

Fossil fuels mentioned officially for the first time

In what some are calling a ‘historic’ development, fossil fuels were mentioned for the first time in an official COP outcome, with the final text including a commitment to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems”.

However, the text falls short of outlining a specific commitment to doing so, and instead calls on countries to contribute to global efforts to transition away from fossil fuels “in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.

While many have criticised the commitment for being vague and unambitious, others have expressed relief that fossil fuels are finally being formally discussed. US climate envoy John Kerry said that “while nobody here will see their views completely reflected, the fact is that this document sends a very strong signal to the world”.

Kerry also noted that in light of this conclusion, both the US and China – the world’s biggest emitters – intend to update their long-term strategies.

Vulnerable countries continue to be overlooked

The final text followed an initial draft that was roundly-rejected as “grossly insufficient”, “incoherent” and a “death certificate” for low-lying and vulnerable nations. The draft text proposed only “reducing both production and consumption of fossil fuels” as an option that countries “could” act upon.

The rewritten text was then only released to countries four hours before it was passed. As The Guardian reports, the Alliance of Small Island States – which represents 39 countries – wasn’t even in the room when the deal was adopted. The alliance’s lead negotiator, Anne Rasmussen, said that the final deal had a “litany of loopholes” and represented only incremental advancement “when what we really needed is an exponential step change in our actions and support”.

Stephen Cornelius, WWF deputy global climate and energy lead, said that while the final draft’s language on fossil fuels was better, it still falls short of calling for the full phase out of coal, oil and gas. “Unfortunately, the draft also includes dangerous distractions such as transitional fuels, nuclear and carbon capture and storage listed as zero and low-emission technologies,” he said. “The text calls on all countries to be guided by IPCC climate science and the aim of limiting global warming to 1.5C, but the guidance is not fully aligned with this aim.”

The final text also makes no mention of methane, one of the world’s most potent greenhouse gases (GHGs).

The Loss and Damage Fund was operationalised

After several years of negotiations, COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh finally saw an agreement from developed nations to create a Loss and Damage Fund to compensate and support vulnerable countries faced with the impacts of climate change.

The fund was formally operationalised at COP28 in Dubai with contributions totalling $726m, and a further $175m added to the UN Adaptation Fund.

However, these figures fall woefully short of the amounts needed. According to the UN, developing nations require as much as $5.9tn for the pre-2030 period to alleviate the impact of climate change, while COP28’s climate negotiators project that the adaptation finance needs of the Global South stand at between $215-387 bn annually until 2030.

Oxfam International’s climate change policy lead Nafkote Dabi said that developed countries’ continued refusal to meet their funding obligations will have dire consequences. “COP28 was doubly disappointing because it put no money on the table to help developing countries transition to renewable energies. And rich countries again reneged on their obligations to help people being hit by the worst impacts of climate breakdown, like those in the Horn of Africa who have recently lost everything from flooding, after an historic five-season drought and years of hunger,” she said.

“Developing countries, and the poorest communities, are left facing more debt, worsening inequality, with less help, and more danger and hunger and deprivation.” 

Recharged support for renewables

In one of the more widely-supported initiatives to come out of proceedings, 118 governments have agreed to triple renewable energy generation capacity globally and double efficiency by 2030.

To limit warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced by almost half by the end of this decade. As part of this effort, analysts suggest that renewable capacity needs to triple, reaching 11 terawatts by 2030.

However, according to analysis from energy thinktank Ember, the world is likely already on track to achieve this target, with many governments having already planned for a doubling of renewables.

Politico, meanwhile, notes that while things look hopeful for increased renewable capacity, doubling efficiency will prove harder, with countries needing to cut their energy intensity — the amount of energy used per unit of GDP — at least twice as fast between 2023 and 2030 as they did in previous years.

Food put on the agenda

Food as a climate consideration has been notably absent from the COP talks until last year, with the introduction of the Food Systems Pavilion at COP27 in Sharm-el Sheikh in Egypt. This year’s summit saw further discussion on food systems, which account for over one-third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Notably, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has launched a plan aiming to transform the world’s agrifood systems from a net GHG emitter to a carbon sink by 2050.  The 120-point plan – which identifies 10 priority areas such as livestock, crops, soil and water – aims to negate the climate impacts of food while at the same time reimagining food systems to address the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger.

Elsewhere, additional countries endorsed the COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action, resulting in a total of 154 nations making the commitment, accounting for more than 70% of global food production.

However, while new money pledged for the global food system’s climate fight surpassed $7bn this year, the FAO says this is “strikingly low” compared with other global climate finance flows. In the two decades up to 2021, support for agri-food systems totalled just $183bn, with contributions falling 12% to $19bn in 2021 from a year earlier.

Key takeaways

The final text shows a number of positive developments. Certainly, the first official mention of fossil fuels and a renewed commitment to renewable energy generation give reasons to be optimistic. But as is so often the case with COP, the plan is not ambitious enough to drive urgently-needed change quickly enough, and a lack of funding is still a major barrier, particularly for vulnerable countries who continue to be overshadowed by economic leaders and petrostates.

Azerbaijan has been announced as the host of next year’s COP, and climate campaigners are already concerned about another fossil fuel-reliant nation taking over the summit presidency and potentially impeding much-needed ambition.

As UN chief António Guterres – who frequently makes clear his frustrations with the glacial pace of action – summarised at the end of this year’s talks: “To those who opposed a clear reference to a phaseout of fossil fuels in the COP28 text, I want to say that a fossil fuel phase out is inevitable whether they like it or not. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.”