Study shows switching to renewables could save trillions

Question on government support for fossil fuels

Ocki asked lead author, Rupert Way, for his views on why, in light of the study, it appears some governments are still ’backing’ fossil fuels? 

Answer: My take is that governments have to rely on energy models and economics to make decisions, but the majority of the scientific literature has yet to fully absorb the scale and implications of the clean energy cost reductions that have taken place over the last decade. Almost none of the past literature has modelled scenarios in which costs fell as rapidly as they have in reality.

Even a few years ago net-zero by 2050 was considered prohibitively expensive by those models, but now, since they have updated their cost assumptions somewhat, it is considered entirely feasible. As models continued to be updated, the scientific consensus is likely to keep shifting in favour of a faster transition, which will gradually feed through to government policy.

Furthermore, governments need to balance a huge range of other factors, both long term and short term, which makes the policy making process even more difficult. Also, it’s important to remember that even in the fastest energy transition scenarios, we will still need fossil fuels for many years to come, due our current high dependence on them, so governments need to keep managing that aspect of the energy transition, ensuring adequate supply for as long as we need them, at the same time as ramping up renewables.

It’s a tricky balancing act, and there is a very long way to go. But hopefully our work will help give governments confidence that the benefits of a rapid transition are likely to far outweigh the costs, so there’s no reason not to press ahead with action now.